Worst tidal surge expected today and Sunday as low pressure from storm affects ocean Play

Tropical Storm Rachel is picking up strength off Baja … something previously unimaginable to hurricane trackers … 

The storm is crossing very warm ocean water on its way to landfall just south of San Diego tonight.

This will aggravate the coastal flooding that hit Malibu during yesterday’s high tide … and the flooding that may be even worse this morning.

And even worse yet, on Sunday. 

It appears that Malibu escaped the disastrous, widespread flooding of beach communities from Long Beach to Newport Beach.

The pier at Paradise Cove, built in 1945, lost some poles at the surf line, and partially collapsed, Friday.  Work crews were bringing in trucks with sand, and cement mixers were arriving, late in the day.

The damaged, privately-owned pier was the largest damage apparent during the day, but reports from private beachfront landowners will be coming in over the next few days.

Waves were observed slashing over decks and washing up against sliding glass windows at Escondido Beach.

At high tide Friday morning … water was topping the side curbs on PCH at several location in eastern Malibu, and pooling on the side of Pacific Coast Highway. 

KBUU News has not received any reports yet of further damage or wave intrusion on PCH west of Malibu.

There were no reports of any damage at Malibu Pier or the Adamson House Friday, but that was not independently verified. 

There are implications for Malibu. The storm may not rain much, but its very-low air pressure might aggravate the coastal flooding that hit Malibu during yesterday’s high tide … and the flooding that may be even worse this morning and even worse yet, on Sunday. 

The worst tidal surge may be Saturday morning and Sunday. But the size of the waves on top of the high ocean level may start to back off.

That's the National Weather Service discussion, which Saturday morning warns that damaging sea-water flooding of structures and beach roadways is likely near times of high tide.

The predicted high tide Saturday is at 9:26 a.m., 7.2 feet. After the low tide at 4 p.m. of 1.2 feet, the second high Saturday is at 10:09 p.m., 5.6 feet.

The National Weather Service says actual high tide measurements are running 1 to 1-1/2 feet above the normal predicted levels.

There is the potential for additional high tide levels as the ocean reacts to a very strong low pressure reading, thanks to the remnants of Hurricane Rachel. Water levels on Sunday may go above Saturday's levels.

Some computer model projections are showing very low atmospheric pressure values Saturday and Sunday. The barometer may drop to as low as 995 millibars, due to Rachel passing south of Ensenada.

Sunday will see enhanced strong downcoast winds in the morning, at about the same time of Sunday morning high tide. The forecasters warn that there is still some uncertainty in these winds, which are related to the timing of Rachel's track in relation to the high tides Sunday morning.

They warn that ocean levels in Malibu will be at least 7.3 to 7.5 feet during the Sunday morning high tide at 9:53 a.m. And there is the potential for water levels to reach 8 feet if the low pressure and onshore wind components materialize near time of high tide.

As a result, Sunday has the highest risk for damaging coastal flooding, especially the Long Beach and Malibu areas.

A Coastal Flood Warning is now in effect. Watch for the official forecast to escalate that to a Coastal Flood Advisory through Tuesday.

High surf of 5 to 8 feet is also expected with locally higher sets possible. A very complex series of swells from the south, west, and northwest will impact our coastlines into at least early next week. Energy from Tropical Storm Rachel, southern hemisphere swells, northwest swells, and local wind swells will add up with each other.

And now, the main concern turns to rain.

An upper atmosphere low pressure system is out southwest of Santa Barbara, and it will interact with Rachel later Saturday through Sunday evening. That brings the possibility of light to moderate showers to the area.

By Sunday night, a second upper low will begin to move south down California and will impact the area Monday and Monday night. At this time, models differ on the exact track of this second low, but any model solution continues to indicate a threat of showers Monday and Tuesday.